On October 3, CEBRI hosted the conference "Brazil on Sustainable Trajectories: Competitiveness Paths for Decarbonization" at the Museum of Modern Art in Rio de Janeiro. The meeting brought together representatives from the public and private sectors, academia, and civil society to discuss the paths forward for Brazil's energy transition.

The conference marked the launch of the Executive Report of the second phase of the Energy Transition Program ('PTE' in Portuguese). This initiative aims to provide technical support for public policy formulation, stimulate investment, and increase engagement with the climate agenda. The study analyzes alternatives related to infrastructure, technology, and innovation, proposing pathways that can guide the country toward carbon neutrality by 2050.

The institutional opening was attended by Luiz Ildefonso Simões Lopes (CEBRI and Brookfield Brasil), Luciana Costa (BNDES) and Ambassador Tatiana Rosito (Ministry of Finance).

In her opening statement, Luciana Costa emphasized that the Brazilian government is already implementing some of the report's recommendations. She highlighted Brazil's potential to take a leading role in climate change:

"When the PTE says that Brazil has the potential to become a climate leader, we understand that there is still much to be done to get there. However, it is essential to look at what has already been accomplished, to understand where we started and where we want to go."

The director also emphasized the relationship between energy transition and infrastructure :

"Investing in energy transition also means investing in infrastructure. Brazil has unique comparative advantages: land, low-carbon fuel, water, and a sophisticated electrical system. In 2023, infrastructure investment was approximately R$260 billion, of which approximately R$80 billion was financed by the BNDES."

Ambassador Tatiana Rosito then reinforced Brazil's strategic role:

"The agriculture, forestry, and land use sector is fundamental to the entire energy transition trajectory. We face significant challenges, but also opportunities. Projects like the PTE's are an essential part of this solution, providing technical content and legitimacy to the agenda."

Rosito also noted that, under Brazil's G20 presidency, sustainability and climate transition were placed at the center of the finance track—an unprecedented milestone. In his speech, he listed priorities to enable the transition, such as (i) reforming multilateral banks to expand external financing; (ii) strengthening domestic capacity through fiscal policies and deepening the financial market; (iii) mobilizing private capital for nature-based solutions; and (iv) incorporating climate risks into financial regulation.

The PTE2 report presents three prospective scenarios for decarbonization:

• Brazil Transition (TB): cost-optimal trajectory for full compliance with the Brazilian NDC, exploring national competitive advantages such as renewables, bioenergy and reforestation.
• Alternative Transition (AT): full compliance with the NDC with additional conditions, such as carbon pricing, climate impacts on electricity supply and demand, and more robust mandates for biofuels and electrification.
• Global Transition (TG): adoption of a carbon budget aligned with the 1.5°C target, with deeper and faster emissions cuts on a global scale.

Access the Executive Report with the full study results, HERE. 

 The report was produced by the renowned research institutions Cenergia (COPPE/UFRJ), MRTS (USP), and FIPE (USP), and co-organized with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), and the Energy Research Company (EPE) under the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME).

The study was sponsored by bp, EDP, Engie, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Shell, Siemens Energy, Vibra, BNDES, and the Federal Government, and supported by Veirano Advogados.