Achieving NetZero by 2050 may require making CO2 emissions negative by 2040. This is one of the findings of an unprecedented study, the result of a partnership between CEBRI's Energy Thematic Program, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the Energy Research Company (EPE) and Cenergia (COPPE/UFRJ). The study shows that, although Brazil is in an advanced stage in terms of the energy transition, new technologies and new energy vectors are fundamental to achieve the climate ambition of net neutrality in greenhouse gasses (GHG) by 2050. In addition, a profound change in emissions from land use and deforestation dynamics is needed in the short term. If, by the end of this decade, the country is unable to eliminate illegal deforestation, there is no technical or realistic feasibility to zero GHG by 2050, as foreseen by the national commitment made in the Paris Agreement.

The final report of the Energy Transition Program, available HERE, presents three energy transition scenarios for the country by 2050: "Brazil Transition", "Alternative Transition" and "Global Transition". These scenarios are used to explore different emission mitigation options, presenting converging emission trajectories with the goal of carbon neutrality in Brazil by mid-century.

The "Transition Brazil" (TB) and "Alternative Transition" (AT) scenarios are built on the basis of the commitments made by the country in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Both indicate cost-effective paths for the country based on different understandings of the evolution of public policies, social consensus, business and consumer behavior, and how new technologies are developed and disseminated. As for the "Global Transition" (TG) scenario, the decarbonization trajectory is shaped based on Brazil's contribution in a world aligned to limit the average increase in global surface temperature by up to 1.5°C.

With an energy matrix in which approximately half of the primary energy comes from renewable sources, Brazil is well positioned on the path to a low carbon economy. The study, however, shows that changes in the energy matrix and in the dynamics of the participation of the different energy sources will be necessary to zero GHG emissions, without excluding the participation of the oil and gas sector in the process. For Jorge Camargo, Vice President of CEBRI's Board of Trustees and coordinator of the project, the wealth generated by this industry, characterized in Brazil by low carbon intensity and low cost, will contribute to the financing of the energy transition and the necessary technological innovations until 2050.

The scenarios, therefore, outline possible decarbonization trajectories and bring new challenges and opportunities for Brazil. As Rafaela Guedes, Senior Fellow at CEBRI and Executive Manager for Social Responsibility at Petrobras, notes, the country holds 20% of the best opportunities for nature-based solutions and must make it a priority to take advantage of this potential, reconciling its food, energy, and environmental goals.

"The results of the Program show that Brazil can position itself as a global energy hub, leading a fair, inclusive and efficient energy transition. This will require creating and improving adequate legal and regulatory frameworks and mobilizing large investments. The IDB is ready to continue providing technical and financial support in these two fundamental areas to catalyze this process", says Morgan Doyle, IDB representative in Brazil.

The report presents nine proposals for the energy transition. They cover public and private commitments and reinforce the Brazilian goal of contributing decisively to the global objective of reducing GHG emissions and limiting global warming. "The Energy Transition Program is extremely important for the EPE and for the Brazilian state, as it contributes to building consensus on the dilemmas, uncertainties, challenges and opportunities for stakeholders and society as a whole," said the former president of the EPE, Thiago Barral.

The executive booklet that summarizes the main data and results of the PTE is available HERE. Check it out!

The study was coordinated by Jorge Camargo, Vice-President of CEBRI, Rafaela Guedes, Senior Fellow, and Gregório Araújo, Senior Researcher. The Energy Transition Program is sponsored by Engie, Equinor, Neoenergia, Shell and Siemens Energy, and supported by BMA Advogados.