On Wednesday (4/2), CEBRI brought together experts to discuss recent trends in decision-making processes in Washington, U.S. foreign policy priorities for Latin America, and their possible implications for Brazil.

The event featured Ambassador Rubens Ricupero, Trustee Emeritus at CEBRI; Brian Winter, Editor-in-Chief of Americas Quarterly and Vice President of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas (AS/COA); and Hussein Kalout, International Advisory Board Member at CEBRI and Special Secretary for Strategic Affairs of the Presidency of the Republic (2016–2018). Leila Sterenberg, CEBRI Senior Fellow and journalist, moderated the discussion.

Domestic priorities and the U.S. focus on Latin America

During the debate, Brian Winter emphasized that U.S. foreign policy—especially under the Trump administration—is strongly shaped by domestic factors. According to him, Trump's election in 2024 was primarily associated with three central issues: inflation, irregular immigration, and the drug crisis and overdose deaths—areas in which Latin America is perceived as strategic. Particularly about immigration and security, the region plays a central role in Washington's agenda. "Making America great again requires a focus on Latin America," he stated.

Although rivalry with China and the pursuit of strategic natural resources are part of this context, Brian Winter and Hussein Kalout stressed that the main driver of this agenda remains domestic.

This logic is reflected in the U.S. National Security Strategy, which calls for recalibrating the country's global military presence, giving greater priority to the Western Hemisphere. Winter noted that this reorientation has already produced concrete effects, such as a more assertive stance toward Venezuela.

China as a structural factor of change

For Ambassador Rubens Ricupero, one element distinguishes the current scenario from previous periods: China's growing and structural presence in Latin America. Unlike the former Soviet Union, whose economic engagement in the region was limited, China has consolidated itself as the main trading partner of several Latin American countries, including Brazil.

This factor imposes objective limits on the United States' capacity to act in the region, he noted. While China presents itself as a large and consistent market for Latin American commodities, the United States tends to act more as a competitor.

During the debate, the possibility of external influence in electoral processes in the region—including in Brazil—was also raised. However, according to Ricupero, the scope of such intervention tends to be limited, as the country currently demonstrates a greater capacity to resist direct political pressure.

Finally, Hussein Kalout added that this scenario may lead Brazil to rethink its vision of national security, especially in the Latin American context and in its strategic relationship with the United States.