On Thursday (25/9), the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) held the masterclass "Latin America in Focus" with journalists from Globo News and O Globo, Ariel Palacios and Janaína Figueiredo.
With the opening remarks by CEBRI's CEO, Julia Dias Leite, the masterclass highlighted the current complexity of politics in Latin America, marked by institutional fragmentation, the lack of regional consensus, and the growing influence of the Trump administration in hemispheric affairs.
In his presentation, Ariel Palacios argued that the region is currently experiencing a different scenario from that in which newly elected presidents had parliamentary majorities from their own parties, as in the case of Evo Morales and Luis Arce in Bolivia, or the Kirchners in Argentina.
The expert argued that we currently observe a political "mosaic": elected presidents who lack a solid legislative base, such as Gustavo Petro in Colombia, Gabriel Boric in Chile, or even Javier Milei in Argentina. This lack of their own majorities hinders governability and fuels political instability.
Regarding the relationship between Latin American governments and Washington, journalist Janaína Figueiredo presented a new dimension that has emerged with the return of Donald Trump. In this new scenario, the O Globo correspondent states that the US president, in his close relationship with Argentine President-elect Javier Milei, uses the leader as a spokesperson and geopolitical instrument in the region.
The experts highlighted the specificities of the Argentine case. Ariel Palacios emphasized the ongoing antagonism that characterizes the country's politics, expressed in the centrality of Peronism and its historical opposition.
In the electoral arena, Janaína Figueiredo noted that Peronism is making a strong comeback, as demonstrated by the victory of the coalition led by Axel Kicillof in the Province of Buenos Aires during the 2023 elections. For the journalist, the legislative elections of October 2025 will be decisive: depending on Javier Milei's performance, the results could signal the irreversible deterioration of his government and even jeopardize North American support.
Still on Milei, Janaína highlighted the worrying lack of solid presidential diplomacy between Brazil and Argentina, in contrast to the relationship maintained with other countries, such as Ecuador. She also highlighted the weakening of multilateral bodies, such as the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), revealing growing regional fragmentation.
Bolivia has a long tradition of institutional instability. In this context, Ariel Palacios analyzed Evo Morales's rise to power as a turning point, marked by the founding of the Plurinational State and the change in reelection rules.
Regarding the near future, analysts assess that the short and medium term remain uncertain, a scenario that tends to favor Morales, whose leadership tends to strengthen in times of crisis. It was also noted that alternative figures, such as Ricardo Paes Pereira, could help reduce the risk of social unrest.
Chile is preparing for new elections in November, amid a scenario of political fragmentation. The left is rallying around the candidacy of Jeannette Jara, former Minister of Labor in the Boric government, while the right, still dispersed, may consolidate.
During the discussion, speculation arose about the potential presidential contenders and their real chances. Meanwhile, Janaína Figueiredo drew attention to the country's alarming economic indicators, which tend to weigh heavily on voters' decisions.
One of the most sensitive cases in the region, Ariel Palacios presented the Venezuelan social formation and the deep divisions that characterize it.
The Venezuelan exodus, already greater than that of countries at war like Syria, reveals the gravity of the country's current crisis. In this context, the Trump administration is pursuing Venezuela with an ambiguous strategy: on the one hand, it is attempting military pressure and intimidation; on the other, it has wings willing to engage in dialogue with Nicolás Maduro and reaffirm its interest in oil and the deportation of Venezuelans from US territory. In the eyes of international analysts, Washington's true objectives remain unclear, and internal divisions within the Venezuelan opposition, as well as the silence of regional bodies like CARICOM, reinforce the country's vulnerability to external pressure.
Experts believe Latin America is experiencing a period of uncertainty, marked by weakened regional institutions and growing external influence, particularly from the US far right. Argentina's case illustrates this well, but Bolivia, Chile, and Venezuela also reveal the internal crises facing the region.
The result is a fragmented map, in which each country requires its own analysis and specific foreign policy strategies, including Brazil's. In this context, the ability to navigate domestic pressures and external constraints becomes the most significant challenge for Latin American democracies.
