On Thursday, September 18, the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) held a lecture with Counselor André Lara Resende to discuss “The Dollar and the New Multiple Threats to Its International Dominance.”

The event opened with remarks by José Pio Borges, Chairman of CEBRI’s Board of Trustees, and featured comments by Ambassador Marcos Caramuru, CEBRI’s International and Advisory Board Member.

In his presentation, André Lara Resende underscored that the dollar’s position as the world’s leading reserve currency has granted the United States an “exorbitant privilege”: the ability to finance its deficits without accumulating international reserves. However, this role also entails vulnerabilities, as highlighted by the Triffin Dilemma, according to which the need to supply global liquidity requires persistent external deficits—an arrangement that, over time, may erode confidence in the very currency underpinning the system.

The economist noted that while the dollar continues to enjoy stability as the dominant reserve currency, several of its pillars of credibility have been undermined by political and legal instability during the Trump administration, the rise of digital currencies, and the growing complexity of the geopolitical landscape.

Against this backdrop, Resende outlined two possible scenarios: the continued gradual loss of the dollar’s relevance without the emergence of a clear alternative, which could fragment the international financial system and weaken multilateral governance; or, in a different scenario, its replacement by another reserve currency—with China as the only viable candidate.

Building on these scenarios, CEBRI’s International and Advisory Board Member Marcos Caramuru offered the Chinese perspective, analyzing Beijing’s strategies to expand the global role of the renminbi (RMB). Among the initiatives highlighted were currency swap agreements, clearing systems, and the development of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) as an alternative to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT).

Taken together, the analyses point to a transitional moment in the international monetary system, in which understanding risks and alternatives will be essential for the foreign and financial policies of countries such as Brazil.