On Thursday (May 29), the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) held a meeting with Arthur Kroeber, Founding Partner and Research Director of Gavekal Group, to discuss the long-term competition between China and the United States, with an emphasis on trade disputes and the strategies adopted by both countries. 

During his presentation, Kroeber analyzed the developments arising from the intensification of the trade war between the two powers and the possible scenarios for the Chinese economy in an increasingly challenging international context.

The expert highlighted that, particularly since the Trump administration, tariffs have been used by the U.S. as multifunctional instruments of foreign and trade policy, mainly targeting China, along with the uncertainty regarding their long-term effects. 

Regarding the Chinese response, Kroeber noted that the experience of the so-called "trade war 1.0," which began in 2018, has driven an agenda aimed at greater self-sufficiency, as well as strengthened the country's retaliation mechanisms. Among these measures, the expert emphasized the control of exports of strategic minerals—essential inputs for key sectors such as defense, energy, and semiconductors, of which the United States remains highly dependent. 

Kroeber also discussed the paths China has been exploring in light of current geopolitical challenges, highlighting that the country has been strengthening its ties with the European Union, Southeast Asia, and Latin America as a way to counterbalance the containment strategy promoted by the United States. 

The event featured opening remarks by Julia Dias Leite, President at CEBRI, and comments from Trustee Emeritus Pedro Malan, along with the presence of trustees, fellows, and guests, including: Edmar Bacha, Trustee at CEBRI; Luiz Ildefonso Simões Lopes, Vice-President at CEBRI Curator Council; Ambassador Antônio Souza e Silva, Advisory Trustee for Institutional and Governmental Relations at CEBRI; Lia Valls, Senior Fellow at CEBRI and Adjunct Professor of Economics and the Graduate Program in International Relations at UERJ; Ana Célia Castro, Senior Fellow at CEBRI and Director of the Brazilian School of Higher Studies at UFRJ; and Lavínia Barros, Advisor to the Presidency of BNDES.