To analyze the war in Ukraine and the consequences for the world, the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Foundation (FFHC) and the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) invited one of the most respected Russian analysts to be the speaker of the debate "War in Ukraine: An Assessment of the Situation and Consequences for the Region and the World". Dmitri Trenin, Director of Carnegie Moscow Center, is recognized for his independence inside and outside Russia.
According to the expert, the perception of the current moment inside Russia weakens Putin's strategy: "People don't see Ukraine as a big enemy. It's like a Trojan Horse. They see the US as an enemy." According to Trenin, Russia's objective is to neutralize Ukraine: "The ultimate goal is not to make Ukraine a part of Russia and not an ally, but for it to be neutral towards the US and NATO."
The analyst believes that there will be an intensification of the fighting and that the world is still living in the initial stages of the war. Although President Vladimir Putin has recently taken a step back, a deal is far from happening, according to Trenin. "I believe Putin toned down a little bit. He is no longer talking about neo-Nazism and has stopped calling Ukraine a regime and has reverted to calling Zelensky the president. But I don't think we'll have a deal anytime soon. Russia is expected to stay in Ukraine longer than expected. We are at the beginning of the conflict and no closer to the end," he predicted.
On the role of diplomacy, Trenin highlighted China's role in reorganizing the geopolitical chessboard and lamented the lack of strong leadership in the negotiations, such as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel: "China, for the first time, took a position on security issues in Europe and can play an important role. After Merkel leaves, there is no one with enough weight to lead an independent process without depending on the US to reach an agreement,” he pointed out.
According to Putin's logic, if diplomacy does not bring results, the military route is the only possible one, according to Trenin. "He could have continued with the talks had he realized that a deal was close, but he ended up seeing the doors closing," he said, suggesting that in an extreme scenario, such as a hypothetical direct conflict with NATO forces, the use of nuclear weapons could be placed on the table. "If Western allies interfere in the operation, Putin has already said they could suffer consequences never seen before, and we can only imagine what that means."
The debate was moderated by Fernanda Magnotta, Senior Fellow at CEBRI, professor and coordinator of the International Relations course at FAAP, and Sergio Fausto, Senior Researcher at CEBRI, political scientist and director of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Foundation.
