The current environment of confrontation between Brasília and Washington projects uncertainties regarding its impacts on Brazil. Against this backdrop, the Programa de Geopolítica do CEBRI and Eurasia Group held, on Wednesday (09/10), the event “Washington–Brasília under Pressure: Diplomacy, Tariffs, and the 2026 Elections”, at Casa COP, in Rio de Janeiro.
The opening remarks were delivered by Luiz Ildefonso Simões Lopes, Vice-President at CEBRI and Vice-President at Brookfield Brasil, with moderation by Christopher Garman, Executive Director for the Americas at Eurasia Group.
Aiming to discuss political and economic scenarios in the short and medium term, the debate brought together leading experts in economics and international relations: Pedro Malan, Emeritus Trustee at CEBRI; Lia Valls Pereira, Senior Fellow at CEBRI and Professor at UERJ; and Silvio Cascione, CEO at Eurasia Group Brasil.
During the discussion, participants emphasized that the Trump administration’s strategy—based on generalized tariffs, deregulation, and restrictive migration policies—intensifies the volatility of global trade and introduces a factor of uncertainty greater than exchange rate fluctuations, as there are no protection mechanisms against tariffs.
The experts also pointed out that, although the macroeconomic impacts may seem limited, the microeconomic effects are profound, particularly for industries highly dependent on the U.S. market. The possibility of additional financial sanctions against Brazilian companies or institutions such as Banco do Brasil was highlighted as a risk that could further exacerbate uncertainty in the national financial system.
In the political and diplomatic arena, attention was drawn to the caution exercised by the Brazilian Presidency in avoiding direct contact with Trump, instead prioritizing alternative channels such as Vice-Presidente Geraldo Alckmin, in the context of the White House’s low willingness to negotiate beyond its priority issues. In this context, possible Brazilian countermeasures were discussed, including selective tariffs, restrictions on American companies, and measures related to intellectual property.
With respect to the 2026 electoral scenario, the debate underscored the influence that international dynamics may exert on the domestic political process.
Finally, strategic recommendations were presented: avoiding direct confrontations with the United States and maintaining a policy of containment diplomacy; diversifying external markets to reduce dependence on U.S. trade; structuring gradual responses that preserve room for maneuver; and reinforcing Brazil’s image as a responsible actor in the multilateral arena, committed to predictability and stability in global trade.
