In December 2025, protests initiated by Iranian merchants in response to rising inflation and currency difficulties rapidly spread across the country, incorporating broader criticism of the regime’s domestic and foreign policies. These demonstrations, however, should be understood as symptoms of a deeper structural crisis, marked by international isolation, persistent economic mismanagement, and recurring practices of corruption, which exacerbate unemployment, political repression, and the deterioration of socioeconomic conditions. Added to this scenario are external pressures, particularly the renewed attention to Iran’s nuclear program following attacks carried out by the United States and Israel in 2025, as well as the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) decision to intensify investigations into the country’s nuclear facilities.

The nuclear program, alongside the development and strengthening of Iran’s military capabilities, constitutes a strategic inflection point for Washington, whose foreign policy identifies the Middle East as a central security priority. Within this context, developments observed in January 2026 further reinforce and deepen this situation of vulnerability. The cancellation of Iran’s invitation to the World Economic Forum in Davos, the deployment of U.S. naval fleets to the region, and public expressions of support by Donald Trump for the internal protests contribute to strengthening the narrative of the regime’s isolation. Conversely, Tehran’s relations with Russia and China, as well as its participation in relevant economic groupings such as OPEC and the expanded BRICS, underscore the broader geostrategic implications that Iran’s posture may exert on the international system.