Participants
Marcos Jank
Trustee
Senior Professor of Agribusiness at INSPER
Over the past three years, the global geopolitical landscape has become significantly more unstable, marked by tensions such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the clashes between Israel and Hamas. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, with a more assertive and unilateral stance, has reinforced an international logic centered on national security and the pursuit of strategic interests through trade. This new environment has directly affected global supply chains, making international commerce more volatile and increasingly sensitive to political decisions.
The global fertilizer market clearly reflects this new dynamic. Essential to agricultural production and food security, fertilizers link a small number of countries that produce key mineral and energy resources to major agricultural exporters such as Brazil. This structure creates a bilateral oligopoly, with negotiations marked by power asymmetries. As a major agricultural exporter that is highly dependent on imported fertilizers, Brazil finds itself vulnerable to external shocks—exacerbated by measures such as Trump’s tariff hike and the risk of sanctions on strategic partners such as Russia.
This event brings together experts in the fertilizer market, agricultural policy, and agribusiness to analyze the main impacts of current geopolitics on the supply of fertilizers to Brazilian agriculture. The discussions will address the importance of these inputs for the sector, Brazil’s dependence on imported products, and the geopolitical effects on both domestic and international fertilizer logistics, concluding with recommendations to mitigate the main risks to which Brazilian agribusiness is exposed.
The initiative also proposes a reflection on the strategies Brazil should adopt in this context, reinforcing its role as a reliable global food supplier. In the face of escalating geopolitical tensions, the Brazilian agricultural sector must combine commercial intelligence, strategic diplomacy, and resilience to navigate the turbulence of the new geopolitical landscape.
Portuguese
Over the past three years, the global geopolitical landscape has become significantly more unstable, marked by tensions such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the clashes between Israel and Hamas. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, with a more assertive and unilateral stance, has reinforced an international logic centered on national security and the pursuit of strategic interests through trade. This new environment has directly affected global supply chains, making international commerce more volatile and increasingly sensitive to political decisions.
The global fertilizer market clearly reflects this new dynamic. Essential to agricultural production and food security, fertilizers link a small number of countries that produce key mineral and energy resources to major agricultural exporters such as Brazil. This structure creates a bilateral oligopoly, with negotiations marked by power asymmetries. As a major agricultural exporter that is highly dependent on imported fertilizers, Brazil finds itself vulnerable to external shocks—exacerbated by measures such as Trump’s tariff hike and the risk of sanctions on strategic partners such as Russia.
This event brings together experts in the fertilizer market, agricultural policy, and agribusiness to analyze the main impacts of current geopolitics on the supply of fertilizers to Brazilian agriculture. The discussions will address the importance of these inputs for the sector, Brazil’s dependence on imported products, and the geopolitical effects on both domestic and international fertilizer logistics, concluding with recommendations to mitigate the main risks to which Brazilian agribusiness is exposed.
The initiative also proposes a reflection on the strategies Brazil should adopt in this context, reinforcing its role as a reliable global food supplier. In the face of escalating geopolitical tensions, the Brazilian agricultural sector must combine commercial intelligence, strategic diplomacy, and resilience to navigate the turbulence of the new geopolitical landscape.
Senior Professor of Agribusiness at INSPER